AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
This team is more loaded than the Yankees offensively speaking and their dynamic one-two punch of John Lester and Clay Bucholz in the starting rotation are enough to hold up the aging Josh Beckett and the inconsistent and thus far disappointing Daisuke Matsuzaka. They will score runs almost at will and with the addition of Carl Crawford and the hopes of a healthy Jacoby Ellsbury will run a lot more than your Grandfather's BoSawx ever did. If everyone stays healthy, they should run away and hide in this diivsion.
2. NEW YORK YANKEES
The lineup will thunder and Mariano Rivera will again defy his age and be the most dominating closer in the game. But, the rotation is a huge question mark once you get past C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes. Even if the Yankees get good innings from over the hill veterans like Bartolo Colon or Freddie Garcia they still fall far short of the Red Sox in both talent and depth. There's probably enough run production here to win the American League Wild Card, but it will take something close to a miracle to claim a division title away from their Beantown rivals.
Too many pieces are missing in too tough of a division to make it back to the playoffs this year for the Rays. The rotation is still young and strong and that alone will win them some games. But they've lost Crawford, Garza, Pena, Balfour, Benoit, and Soriano all in one off-season. Even if young phenom Desmond Jennings can play 140 games and make an immediate impact it just won't be enough to compensate for that outgoing flood of players.
4. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
There is a lot to like about the future of the Baltimore Orioles and they'll be better in 2011 than they were in 2010 or 2009 or . . . well you get the picture. However, the starting pitching is still a year or two away from enough consistency to place in the top half of the AL East and while they added some pop with free agent signings Vlad Guerrero and Derek Lee and made a shrewd trade for Mark Reynolds, they will very likely strike out way too much to provide enough regular run production. The bullpen is also likely to give away too many games too often to keep the O's from making a real run at a winning season.
It's going to be a long year in Toronto. The Jays have traded away Shawn Marcum and Vernon Wells and are firmly entrenched in a rebuilding project. There might be some nice bright spots to the year like watching Travis Snider become a big-time ballplayer, but don't expect more than 75 wins in 2011.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
The 2011 edition of the ChiSox are a classic example of "if" in baseball. "If" Jake Peavey stays healthy and "if" power hitting OF Adam Dunn transitions to the AL, the White Sox are the front-runner in the Central. Conventional wisdom says that this is a safe enough bet to make them the favorite here. The rotation is solid, if not fantastic and they'll score loads of runs in their small park with Dunn, Konerko and Quentin in the middle of the lineup. The Sox have a serviceable, if not terribly sexy, bullpen that more often than not should lock down games late. This could be a banner year for the Southsiders.
The Tigers had a busy winter, snagging Victor Martinez to protect Miguel Cabrera in the lineup and grabbing Joaquin Benoit as a set-up man to closer Jose Valverde. In short, they got better and after a 2010 season filled with injuries and inconsistency, the new look Tigers could put some real pressure on the White Sox for the division title. This was, after all, a team that in 2010 with erratic from it's 3-4-5 slots in the starting rotation and had so many injuries offensively the lineup on a given night could be the Toledo Mud Hens plus Miguel Cabrera. Even with those setbacks the Tigers managed an 81-81 campaign. So, with some good fortune in the health department and the addition of V-Mart there could be a run at a division title in the mix for this year's Detroiters. In the end though, the Tigers rotation still has enough question marks (How productive and healthy can Brad Penny be? Will Phil Coke make a successful transition to starter?) that it will keep the Tigers from being atop the division come year's end.
Ron Gardenhire is the best manager in baseball and it's probably a mistake to pick the Twins third here considering how Gardy has done so much with so little for the least several years. However, the White Sox and Tigers got better this past winter and the Twins lost some very key pieces to their bullpen. Sure, Mauer and Morneau are a great threat in the middle of that lineup, but they've both struggled with health and the rest of the lineup is nothing more than average. The rotation is solid, but not spectacular and there is lots of talk the Twins are looking to move their ace Fransisco Liriano before the trade deadline. The top three teams in the AL Central might be the best race for a division in baseball this year and they'll all be within a scant few games of each other, but the Twins are likely to come up just a little short.
The Indians know they can't compete this year and in some respects that's best for the franchise. It will give manager Manny Acta a chance to really work with up and coming youngsters like catcher Carlos Santana, and starters Carlos Carrasco and Justin Masterson to give them lots of big league experience and chart what the Indians hope will be their rapid growth. The lack of a competitive chance will also afford Grady Sizemore an opportunity to get healthy on a reasonable time table and hope he can come back to be something like the player he was a few years ago. Rumors abound that Fausto Carmona will be on the block by mid-year and this might allow the Tribe to further stock the cupboards for the future. Look for individual improvement from the rising stars and enjoy the hot dogs at Progressive Field this year because it's going to be a very long summer in Cleveland.
The Royals feel almost like permanent cellar dwellers in the AL Central and this year promises to be no different. While the Royals may have more talent in their farm system than any other club in MLB, they won't put much of a product on the field this year. Rookies like SS Alicedes Escobar and 3B Mike Moustakas figure to get some time and could be fun to watch, but it can't make up for a nothing lineup around Billy Butler and a pitching staff that just traded away the only thing it hid going in Zack Greinke. Pundits claim big things for the Royals in years to come, but it ain't coming anytime soon.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
In 2010, the A's allowed fewer runs than any team in in the Major Leagues. Their core of young starters is all back, and with another year's experience under their belts. While Oakland didn't go out and make sexy winter-time pickups, they did trade for Josh Willingham and sign a free agent deal for Hideki Matsui to help bolster a very anemic offense. By adding Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes, GM Billy Bean shrewdly upgraded the effectiveness of his bullpen. Sure, this week's injury to closer Andrew Bailey is a blow, but even if the news is bad and Bailey misses most or all of the year, the Oakland bullpen will still be better in 2011 than it was in 2010. The Giants proved again last year that pitching and defense win championships and in the AL West where the gap last year between Texas and Oakland was just 9 games, Oakland has the pitching depth and enough offense to get over the hump this year.
In a few short years (or even months) the Rangers will be happy they didn't end up signing Cliff Lee. An expensive offer of a six year deal to a pitcher in his early 30's with a history of back trouble is almost certain to blow up in the face of the GM who pulls it off and the Rangers may have more room in the coming years to make smart baseball moves. In 2011 though, the Rangers will miss Lee a great deal. Even though he only won 13 regular season games last year he helped to take a great deal of pressure off the rest of the starting staff. Much of that staff flew in under the radar and went quietly abut its business for the bulk of the year unnoticed. Now, the Rangers will have to contend with being favorites to win their own division and the spectre of defending a pennant. There is talk of moving closer and Rookie Of The Year winner, Neftali Feliz to the starting rotation. Not only does this leave a huge hole in the back end of their bullpen, but it creates a real problem if Feliz is unsuccessful at making the transition. It's a huge gamble. The Rangers offense is good, but their pitching got a whole lot worse and not even the addition of slugging 3B Adrian Beltre can help the Rangers overcome what are sure to be some pitching inconsistencies. It'll be a close race much of the year, but the task will be too great for the Rangers in the end.
The Angels had a rough Hot Stove session in the winter of 2010-2011. They were rumored for almost every big name free agent this side of Cliff Lee. Thought to be players for Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and Adrian Beltre, the Angels shocked the talking heads by signing exactly none of those players. After a third place finish in 2010 they stood pat during the free agent boom times. They made a nice solid trade for Vernon Wells and he's sure to help them and will be a nice compliment to their lineup. The bullpen however, is another story altogether. Soriano is the guy who could have really turned it around quick in Anaheim. Most analysts predict that Fernando Rodney has lost the confidence of the Angels management team and will be out on his ear by July. The rest of the pen isn't that great, either. The team may score some runs and even get some solid starting pitching from its front-liners Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. While the rest of the rotation is fairly decent it can't overcome an aging lineup with stalwarts Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu one year older and a half step slower and an extremely shaky bullpen. The AL West may produce the champion with the lowest total of any division in MLB, but that champ won't likely be the Angels.
The Mariners are going to be bad again in 2011. Last year, lots of fans and writers drank the Kool-Aid and sat eagerly awaiting the M's to take home the AL West crown last year. It never happened. This year will be no different. Sure, they have Felix Hernandez and the inimitable Ichiro, but the rest of their squad is just a mess. Chone Figgins showed his age last year and there is no power threat at all in this lineup. Other than King Felix, the rotation is a hodge-podge of prospect potential and journeyman underachievers. Young talent like Dustin Ackley will surface, maybe even before September call-ups but this team can really only get you to the ballpark to watch its two superstars. Other than that, it's a lot like watching the Kansas City Royals in a nicer park.
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