NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
1. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
It's the pitching stupid! Chase Utley is hurt again. I know. Jimmy Rollins looks hobbled in Spring Training. I know. Jayson Werth left and went to the Nationals. I know. The Phils had a helluva time scoring runs last year and it cost them a pennant. I know! Add to all of that a slightly shaky back-end to their bullpen with Brad Lidge and Ryan Madsen and there is still enough starting pitching on the Phillies to win this division. It would be very chic to pick the Braves or the Marlins to win the NL East, but it isn't going to go down that way. Joe Blanton, the Phillies #5 starter in the rotation is good enough to be a #3 on a lot of big league teams. Ryan Howard will still smack 35 HRs and Manager Charlie Manuel has enough other talent and baseball acumen to produce the requisite runs to get loads of wins for his ridiculously good starting staff of Roy Halladay (the best starter in baseball), Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt (yeah, he's their #4 guy) and the aforementioned Blanton. This is like the starting pitching equivalent of killing a fly with a hammer. Trust me and stop trying to talk yourself out of picking the Phillies. This will be more than enough to get the job done.
2. ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves have lots of talent. Lots of it is young talent. Jason Heyward had a great rookie campaign and Atlanta hopes for big things from Freddi Freeman, its new young stud at first base. Atlanta also snagged 2B Dan Uggla for a song in a trade with the Marlins and added some real meat to the middle of their order. The pitching staff is pretty locked in and firm with the likes of Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Derek Lowe. Craig Kimbrel figures to be a rock solid replacement for the retired Billy Wagner at the back of the bullpen. That said, there is nothing here that should really give the Phillies trouble for slate of 162 games. The Braves offense is good, but not head and shoulders better than the Phils and while the Braves bullpen might be better, it won't even come close to bringing its rotation in to the same stratosphere with the Phillies'. All is not lost though, since Atlanta has plenty of talent to make a real run at a second straight Wild Card appearance.
3. FLORIDA MARLINS
The young rotation of the Marlins can easily remind one of their AL counterparts, the Oakland A's. Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco all had moments of greatness last year and conventional wisdom would have us thinking they're ready to take another step forward. And, in reality they may very well be. You can expect the Marlins to improve upon their 80-82 season from a year ago. John Buck is a nice addition behind the plate and Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton look ready to take over everyday duties in the OF. But, the bullpen has some question marks and it will be a while before the Marlins can recover from letting go of power-hitting Dan Uggla to their intra-division rival Atlanta. They'll miss his power, if not his strikeouts. Omar Infante, who the Marlins got back in that deal, is a very nice player and will probably hit right around .300, but there aren't enough runs to go around here to take the next leap forward. Look for some incremental improvement, but this team probably tops out around 85 wins or so.
4. NEW YORK METS
Just change your team name to the New York Mess already. The Mets have so many overpaid players it's impossible to list them all here, but right now it has completely removed them from being a viable contender in any sense of the word. David Wright is still a really nice player and Jason Bay could have a bit of a bounce back year if health allows. Yet, none of that matters as the Mets will languish under the weight of years of bad decisions. Expect SS Jose Reyes to wear a different uniform before the trade deadline comes and goes and keep an eye on whether Carlos Beltran can stay healthy long enough for the Mets to trade him off to a contender who needs veteran OF or DH. Sadly, 2011 will be much more interesting for the Mets as far as off-field moves go than it will between the lines.
5. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Almost everyone around baseball wants the Nationals to be better. Washington, DC is a town that would love to have a meaningful baseball team and some great pieces are already there. Ryan Zimmerman is one of the game's premier third basemen and the signing of outfielder Jayson Werth this winter in the free agent market was something of a coup. Unfortunately, the pieces are not all in place yet. Pitching phenom Stephen Starsburg will miss the whole season after surgery. Josh Willingham was traded away after the Werth signing and uber-prospect Bryce Harper likely won't be ready for full-time in the bigs until next year. Like their area compatriots, the Orioles, the Nats are moving in the right direction and their day is coming soon. It's just that it won't come anytime in 2011.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
While the Reds came out of nowhere to win the NLGreinke's season in Milwaukee, the Reds should have the offense and starting stuff to get it done. Joey Votto is likely to take a step back from his 2010 MVP campaign, but Jay Bruce seems ready to take the next step forward and should offer Votto some protection in the lineup. The Red's bullpen could be the only potential Achilles heel to a repeat as division winners. Francisco Cordero is always a roller coaster in the closer's spot and while youngsters like Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman may get time in the bullpen as they await a rotation spot, their youth and inexperience could be a downfall. But my guess is that the Reds can overcome their handful of flaws to repeat as champs in 2011.
The Brewers may have taken a bigger step forward in the winter of 2011 than any club in major league baseball by making big-time trades for starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum. Over the last couple of seasons the Brew Crew have been something of a disappointment as their pitching hasn't been quite good enough to keep up with their above average offense. This year, look for Greinke and Marcum to join forces with Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo and create a forceful top of the rotation in Miller Park. The 4 and 5 spots may be sketchy, but a great top three can go a long way towards success. Prince Fielder, Caey McGehee, Corey Hart and Ryan Braun comprise the middle of a potentially powerful lineup. The possibility is certainly there for the Brewers to catch the Reds in the Central, but most likely they'll need some improvement in the bullpen and another year or two to gel enough to make the promised land.
The loveable losers from the Northside could put together a great top three in their rotation much like the Brewers. Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza are terrific starters and if the Cubs can get the same Carlos Zambrano they got after he returned from anger management treatment later in the season, things could certainly look bright at Wrigley Field. However, the Cubs are likely to struggle mightily to score runs. 3B Aramis Ramirez hopes to have a healthy year and make it a return to form in a contract walk year. Even if that hope becomes reality, an aging Alfonso Soriano and perennial disappointment Kosuke Fukudome are likely not enough run production to hang all year with the Brewers and Reds. The addition of 1B Carlos Pena, will add some HR to the mix, but it will also add lots of strikeouts and inning ending double plays. It's a decent addition to the roster, but the net gain isn't going to make a significant enough difference in runs scored to get the Cubs to the playoffs. Chicago figures to keep it interesting into late summer, but without another stick or two, the Cubs come up short.
The Cardinal's ace Adam Wainwright has had season ending surgery and super-duper-star 1B Albert Pujols is in the final year of his contract and in free agency he is almost certainly destined to become the highest paid player in the history of baseball. Add to that a shaky bullpen, the uncertain health status of starter #2 Chris Carpenter and the addition of at least one rookie arm at the back of the rotation and it makes things look pretty unsettling in St. Louis. Pujols will probably shake off the contract talks enough to still be the game's most productive hitter and Matt Holliday will hit right next to him in the lineup and be just fine - and very productive. Other than that though, too much of the Cardinal's team is an unknown quantity. With the top three teams in the NL Central all within striking distance of one another, and possessing superior overall talent, it's very tough to imagine the Card's cracking the top half of the division this time around.
The Astros pitching staff is serviceable with the like of Wandy Rodriguez and J.A. Happ. There are some gritty position players like Michael Bourne and Hunter Pence. Houston figures to run a lot and could get some middle of the lineup pop at time with Pence and Carlos Lee. That's where the optimism ends. Scoring runs will be a problem and the bullpen looks questionable on a good day. Because they'll have to manufacture runs, purists and National League afficiandos will likely get a kick watching the Astros play small ball in their quirky park, but it won't lead to much more than 75 wins.
What is there to say about the Pirates that doesn't sound like a broken record? They haven't had a winning season since the mid 90's. It's almost a certainty that they'll finish at the bottom of the NL Centra - again. It's the longest rebuilding project in seemingly forever. There isn't much to be hopeful about. James McDonald is a very young starter with lots of potential and Andrew McCutcheon is a dazzingly fun player to watch. Oh, the park is beautifully set in downtown Pittsburgh and I know from experience that sausages there are excellent and the city itself is a surprisingly fun place to spend time. Other than that, it's not very pretty. Expect a 90 loss season and wait for Ben Roethlissberger to get in legal trouble again.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
The Giants situation is a lot like the Phillies in that they have stellar starting pitching. And, while their offense has many more question marks and it's unlikely they'll win another World Series, their bullpen is top notch and they should have enough to hold off some very good, but potentially flawed teams in their own division. Pablo Sandoval should have a bounce back season at third base, and while Buster Posey, Cody Ross and Aubrey Huff aren't sexy hitters, they'll score enough runs to keep the G-Men in games. Starters Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are amongst the league's very best pitchers and Madison Baumgartner and Jonathan Sanchez help round out 80% of an impressive staff. While the Rockies and Dodgers hope to make it interesting, I'd bet on San Francisco claiming kings of the division for at least one more year.
The Rockies were 52-29 last year at home and if they had been able to maintain even a mildly respectable road record, they cold have won the NL West instead of ending up 3rd. The primary reason for their road record was an utter absence of run production away from Coors Field. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and young phenom outfielder Carlos Gonzalez were amazing in Denver, but nothing too special on the road. Ubaldo Jimenez was a lights out starter in the first half last year and tailed off severely after the All-Star break. It's these sort of inconsistencies that will ultimately keep the Rockies out of the playoffs again this year. The talent is certainly there to win the division and a close race until mid-September is likely, but too often mediocrity on offense and shaky pitching on road trips will be the killer.
Don Mattingly is in his first year as manager of the LA Dodgers and he seems like a good fit for the long haul but there is lots of work in front of him. Outfielder Matt Kemp ought to be a dominant five tool player who can make his offense exponentially better all by himself, but in 2010 he was a major disappointment. Terrific young pitchers like Jonathon Broxton, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley have oodles of potential, but were plagued by immaturity last year. Expect somewhat of a step forward and a big progression in the quality of the Dodger bullpen. Unfortunately for LA fans, like so many NL teams, in the end it will be a lack of run production and consistency that will be bite the Dodgers and keep them from a playoff run.
When the Padres traded away Adrian Gonzalez they mortgaged any chance at a competitive 2011. Having already overachieved with one power hitter in Gonzalez and a make-shift lineup in 2010, it's impossible to imagine they an score enough runs to make any sort of run at a .500 year. There are some nice things going on in the pitching department in San Diego, especially in the form of Mat Latos, but there is almost zero to get pumped about in the batter's box. A major concern for the future of this club is that they got far too little in prospects back for Gonzalez in the trade with the Red Sox. To be honest even a fourth place in this division right now seems a little optimistic.
Kirk Gibson does seem like a perfect manager. He was a gutty player who got his jersey dirty in every game before batting practice was even done. Sadly, grit and guts won't get you the players you need to win. Starter Daniel Hudson seems like a very nice young arm and he could be a good piece to build a staff around for the future. Even though he is only in his mid-twenties, it seems like we've been waiting forever for outfielder Justin Upton to finally turn into the all-around offensive stud he was promised to be so many years ago. The D-Backs traded away Mark Reynolds to the Orioles and with it went the only other real source of power they had at the plate. It's reasonable to believe that Gibson can help bring the club back to competitive play, but it certainly isn't going to happen any time in the near future.
No comments:
Post a Comment